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Freddie Mac On Track to Single Security

first_imgHome / Daily Dose / Freddie Mac On Track to Single Security Related Articles Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days ago The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago The Week Ahead: Nearing the Forbearance Exit 2 days ago Sign up for DS News Daily Subscribe Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago  Print This Post Kristina Brewer is the Editorial Assistant of Publications for the Five Star Institute, including DS News and MReport magazine. She is a graduate of the University of North Texas (UNT), where she received her Bachelor of Arts in English with a concentration in rhetoric and writing and a minor in global marketing. During this time, she served as Director of Philanthropy in the national women’s fraternity Zeta Tau Alpha, of which she is an alumna. Her passion for philanthropy continued after university when she was an intern at Keep Denton Beautiful, a local partner of Keep America Beautiful, where she drove membership, organized events, and led social media campaigns. Brewer honed her writing at the North Texas Daily, UNT’s student-run newspaper where she wrote about faculty, mentorship, and student life. Brewer also previously worked at Optimus Business Plans where she helped start-ups create funding proposals, risk assessments, and management plans. August 2, 2018 2,065 Views In an effort to provide more liquidity and lower costs for borrowers, Freddie Mac has announced that it will begin issuing new 55-day “mirror” mortgage-backed securities. These securities will be available for the current population of exchange-eligible 45-day Freddie Mac Gold Participation Certificates (PCs) and Giant PCs to facilitate the implementation of the Single Security Initiative on June 3, 2019, according to the press release.“We believe the early issuance of mirror securities will enable market participants to both analyze their holdings and build in pricing and disclosure in advance of the official exchange offer next May,” said Mark Hanson, SVP of securitization at Freddie Mac. “This is an important step toward the implementation of the Single Security Initiative in June 2019, paving the way for a combined Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae $3.5 trillion market of a To-Be-Announced Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security. The Single Security Initiative is intended to strengthen the U.S. mortgage market by providing more liquidity and lowering costs for borrowers.”The initial issuance of these mirror securities are expected to begin on August 7 and will take approximately 8 weeks. Mirror security disclosures will be available on August 10, 2018. The organization anticipates over 70,000 mirror securities to be issued in this period, corresponding to the population of exchange-eligible PCs and Giants. Freddie Mac will continue to issue mirror securities as new exchange-eligible 45-day securities are produced, the statement said.All the mirror securities will be held in a Freddie Mac account at the Federal Reserve until the organization commences the exchange offer in May 2019. Investors will then be able to exchange eligible 45-day PCs and Giants for corresponding 55-day mirror mortgage-backed securities on a one-for-one basis. Gold PC and Giant holders are expected to be able to choose between two alternative exchange paths: one facilitated by a dealer using Freddie Mac’s Dealer DirectSM portal or directly with Freddie Mac. The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago 2018-08-02 Kristina Brewer Freddie Mac On Track to Single Security About Author: Kristina Brewer Share Save Previous: Court of Appeals Addresses Debt Collector License Requirements Next: The Industry Pulse: Update on Stern & Eisenberg, New Diligence Advisors, and More Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago in Daily Dose, Featured, Headlines, Investment, Journal, News Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days agolast_img read more

Press release: Commission for Countering Extremism launches evidence drive

first_img Katie Morris, Head of Europe and Central Asia, Article 19 publish a comprehensive study engage widely, building a network of counter extremists establish a robust commission making recommendations about its future structure Dame Louise Casey DBE CB, led a review into opportunity and integration in some of our most isolated communities consult the public, including asking them to submit evidence and visiting communities affected by extremism we have the start of a powerful counter-extremism movement but brave individuals and groups face abuse and vilification – the CCE will investigate the current response to extremism and how we can help everyone to do more challenge extremism Full biographies will be available on the Commission’s blog Evidence gatheringIn the coming months, the CCE will: This is an important moment for the commission as we move from our introductory phase to a period of intensive evidence gathering, with the aim of publishing a first-of-its-kind study. I’ve already met with more than 300 experts and activists. Communities are deeply concerned about the impact of extremism. Extremism is sowing division and hate, spreading fear and undermining democratic values and human rights. But it’s also complex and changing – in 2018 the old stereotypes of far right thugs and Islamist hate preachers don’t always apply. Whether it’s far right, Islamist or other forms of extremism, we need to investigate their changing tactics such as a new-found professionalism, the intellectualising of hate, and abusing the power of social media. There are brave, inspiring counter-extremists up and down the country making a difference despite threats and abuse. I believe we have the start of a powerful counter-extremism movement. We need to understand modern day extremism better, so we can help more people to challenge it. That is why this study is so important. The public debate on extremism is increasingly polarised, leaving some nervous about speaking out. We need to investigate how we improve the debate around extremism, so it’s more constructive. We must be prepared to follow the evidence and to be as radical as necessary when it comes to countering extremism. In a further announcement, Sara today confirms that she has created a new expert group to advise and challenge the CCE on its work.The experienced and diverse panel includes grassroots activists, individuals with decades of frontline experience, leading figures on far right and Islamist extremism, experts on social media, and campaigners on freedom of speech (the full list is below).The group will meet around 4 times over the coming year to advise and challenge the Lead Commissioner.Sara was asked by the previous Home Secretary to lead the CCE in January.In March, the CCE was formerly launched as an independent body, with the publication of a charter outlining its independent role.Sara agreed the following 3 objectives for her first year: the public debate on extremism is increasingly polarised, leaving some nervous about speaking out – the CCE will consider how we can have a constructive and civilised debate on the issue work with experts and activists at local and national levels, including government, to prioritise work to address the gaps use this assessment as a springboard to commission bespoke pieces of research on critical issues Dr Azeem Ibrahim, author and Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute Pragna Patel, Director, Southall Black Sisters communities are deeply concerned about extremism – the CCE will investigate the scale of the problem, the changing tactics of extremists and the harm extremism causes in communitiescenter_img Professor Chetan Bhatt, Director, Centre for the Study of Human Rights, LSE Jamie Bartlett, author and Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos Sir David Anderson KBE QC, former Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation work with research experts to assess current academic evidence and pinpoint the gaps – the CCE will use the government definition of extremism as a starting point for this stage – its work and research, however, will not be limited by this definition Nick Lowles MBE, Chief Executive, Hope Not Hate the government has already committed to sharing information with the commission – the CCE will also ask regulators, local councils and police forces, universities and other public and private bodies to share information on extremism Expert group Sasha Havlicek, Chief Executive of the Institute of Strategic Dialogue Today’s announcements come after Lead Commissioner Sara Khan met the Home Secretary Sajid Javid to update him on the work of the CCE shortly after his appointment.Lead Commissioner Sara Khan said: Sunder Katwala, Director, British Future The independent Commission for Countering Extremism (CCE) is today (Wednesday 11 July) launching an intensive period of evidence gathering with the aim of publishing a first-of-its-kind study into all forms of extremism. Lead Commissioner Sara Khan says she is willing to be as radical as needed, when it comes to looking at how to counter extremism in the future.Neither the issue of terrorism nor the government’s counter terrorism strategy (which includes Prevent) are in the CCE’s remit.Lead Commissioner Sara Khan says she wants to show people the deep, chronic harm extremism causes in communities.In the coming months, the CCE will review existing academic evidence on extremism, commission bespoke research and issue a public call for evidence. Sara wants to hear from victims, their families and all those that counter extremism.The government has already committed to sharing information with the commission.The CCE will also ask regulators, local councils and police forces, universities and other public and private bodies to share information on extremism.The evidence drive and comprehensive study will, Sara explains, help build greater understanding of extremism and engage more people than ever in tackling it.Marking the launch Sara reveals she has already met more than 300 experts and activists, and visited 10 towns and cities.She has identified critical issues for the Commission to investigate as part of its study: Sir Mark Rowley KB QPM, former Assistant Commissioner, Metropolitan Police Fiyaz Mughal OBE FCMI, founder and director of Faith Matters and founder of Tell Mamalast_img read more

Coe: ‘Semenya case’ not personal

first_imgRelatedPosts Ex-IAAF boss bags two-year jail term South African runner Semenya defiant after court ruling Semenya loses appeal against CAS ruling over testosterone regulations Lord Sebastian Coe, president of the International Association of Athletics Federation, has insisted that the association’s female eligibility regulations, which finally came into effect in May, 2019 after several months of delay, are not targeted at a particular athlete, even though Caster Semenya is the first name that comes to mind whenever the highly-controversial and heated issue is being discussed.As a result of her refusal to comply with the IAAF ruling, which requires athletes with a difference in sexual development to take testosterone-reducing medication, Semenya has been barred from defending her 800m title at this month’s World Athletics Championships in Doha.The 28-year-old, who is hyperandrogenous and has high levels of testosterone, took it upon herself to go head to head with the world athletics governing body in court, and the high-profile case has seen deliberations going on for months.Coe told CNN that he has not spoken directly to Caster Semenya regarding this sensitive matter.He added: “I haven’t because this is not about an individual athlete. It’s not about a particular country. It’s not about a particular continent. I don’t see this as a personal issue. I see this as the right decision and those regulations have been tabled for what I believe are the right reasons.”In May, the Court of Arbitration for Sport ruled in favour of the IAAF, but Semenya did not relent, taking the case to the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland, where a final decision is yet to be made.With the eligibility regulations, the IAAF aims to preserve “the integrity of female athletics in the Restricted Events”. But this move has split the world in two with one part feeling it goes against human rights.In June, Semenya, after winning the 2,000m at the Meeting de Montreuil in Paris, said: “I’m not an idiot. Why will I take drugs? I’m a pure athlete. I don’t cheat. They should focus on doping, not us. I’m never going to take drugs.”When asked if he has any sympathy for Semenya, who has not been convicted of doping but is rather being restricted from competing because of a rare genetic condition which is not of her own making, Coe responded:“I have clearly a sympathy for the efforts we are trying to make,” said Coe. “I hope she does come back on to the track and I do hope that the athletes with that condition to take the medical direction that allows them to do that.”Tags: Caster SemenyaIAAFlast_img read more

Monk: Bony deal can spur us on

first_img Bony revealed on Thursday that he is close to signing a one-year extension on his current deal at the Liberty Stadium and that would be a huge boost for a Swansea side who have started the season well and lie sixth in the Barclays Premier League. The Ivorian scored 25 goals in all competitions last season following his club record £12million move from Dutch club Vitesse Arnhem and after a slow start this term has scored four times in as many league appearances. Press Association Swansea expect star striker Wilfried Bony to extend his contract until 2018 – and manager Garry Monk hopes it could even be done before the visit of Arsenal on Sunday. “But it’s nice to see such a good player and a big character in the changing rooms commit to the club. “I think he deserves it, it’s something he wanted himself and through negotiations we’ve come to an agreement with the player. “He’s been very good for us as he’s scored a lot of goals but more than that he contributes to the group. “He’s a strong character and leader within the group and the more people you have like that in your squad the better for everyone. “I’m sure Wilfried will be linked again in the transfer window – but my focus is on keeping the best players at the club.” Monk, though, is unsure whether another striker, Michu, will be returning to Swansea as early as January following reports in Italy that the Napoli loan signing was surplus to requirements at the Serie A club. Michu, who scored 22 goals in his first campaign at Swansea before suffering an injury-hit season last term, has managed only three starts and five appearances for Napoli and failed to either complete 90 minutes or score for Rafael Benitez’s side. The 28-year-old has now been ruled out for the next fortnight with a recurrence of the ankle problem that plagued him at Swansea but Monk says the player’s position is unclear. “I’m not sure contractually whether we could bring him back and we’d have to check fine lines before dealing with something like that,” Monk said. “I’ve not spoken to him recently but we’ll see what the situation is and assess it from there.” “Hopefully it will be agreed before the weekend and done before the game,” Monk said of Bony’s contract extension at his press conference ahead of the Arsenal match. “That would be nice, but you’ve got to go through the legal procedures to check everything’s in place. “I’ve had a great relationship with Wilfried and spoke to him a lot in the summer, I know how committed he is as a person and as a professional. “He enjoys his time at Swansea and this contract is a symbol of how much he enjoys being here and how committed he is to the club. “It’s a big signing for the club and the player himself but also for his team-mates, and hopefully it will be a big boost to everyone.” Bony has been strongly linked with some of the Premier League’s biggest clubs since settling so well into English football and scoring twice at the World Cup for the Ivory Coast. Liverpool and Sunday’s Liberty visitors Arsenal were reported to have considered bids for the 25-year-old powerhouse last summer but Bony was still at Swansea when the new season got under way. “You’re always going to see a lot of speculation about a player like that,” Monk said. last_img read more

YouTube Network Holds Celebrity’s AdSense Account Hostage

first_imgTags:#YouTube 12 Unique Gifts for the Hard-to-Shop-for People… 5 Outdoor Activities for Beating Office Burnout fruzsina eordogh Related Posts center_img Last night, top YouTuber Ray William Johnson dropped a bombshell: The network he left almost two months ago has yet to return his AdSense account despite promising to do so.Johnson left his network, Maker Studios, in October to much speculation, which I used as an opportunity to address how YouTube networks were taking advantage of young talent with predatory contracts and unsavory business practices. The story appealed to many, even beyond YouTube insiders, because YouTube, with its DIY style, was supposed to redefine business in the digital era, not mirror corrupt Hollywood practices like exploiting rising hot young things.“Creators are offered a hook of slightly higher ad revenue, but [they] don’t realize that in return for getting a bit more money from ad clicks, they are giving away the rights to what they created,” wrote Art Neill, the Executive Director of the nonprofit New Media Rights in an email to ReadWrite. “For a few pennies on the dollar, the content network, not the artist, controls the fate of what the artist has created,” added Neill.  A law student at Columbia University who knows his new media rights, Johnson promptly left his network when contract disputes arose.In a guest post last night on NewMediaRockstars, Johnson tells why he left Maker Studios. The network started shutting down his projects — his Web series and album — in an attempt to strong-arm him into signing a new “aggressive” contract, he said. The new contract demanded a higher cut of his AdSense revenue and 50% ownership of his hit show =3’s “intellectual property in perpetuity.”  Johnson said he’s coming forward (backed by photographs of his contract and communications with Maker Studios) because “I would only like for my Youtube [sic] Adsense [sic] account to be returned to me as promised so that I can move on with my life.” (And, he wrote, he “hope[s] that this story will make anyone in the Youtube [sic] community think twice about signing their Adsense [sic] over to a Youtube [sic] network or third party.”)For those unfamiliar with the YouTube industry, content creators use AdSense accounts with Google to capitalize on their work — AdSense being Google’s program that sells and serves ads, including ones on YouTube. When YouTubers sign with YouTube networks, which can be anything from a production studio, talent-management agency or distribution service, they hand control of their AdSense account to that network. So, Johnson isn’t kidding when he says he needs his AdSense account back to move on.A YouTuber since 2007 and the site’s first video creator to hit $1 million profits through YouTube’s partner program, in April 2011, Johnson enjoys an average of 4 million views on each of his main-channel videos.At an average CPM rate of $2 for every 1,000 views, Johnson makes roughly $8,000 per video on just his main channel. (Johnson could have a higher or lower CPM rate — YouTubers are forbidden from discussing their CPM rates.)In the two months since Johnson left Maker Studios, he’s made 14 videos on his primary channel, which, using the $2 CPM rate, comes to $112,000 in revenue. This is $112,000 revenue that Johnson’s work has generated for Maker Studios, despite his no longer being in the network.While we don’t know what cut Johnson was giving Maker Studios in his original contract, it certainly wasn’t all of his revenue. Remember, Maker Studios is currently keeping all of his revenue right now as they still have control over Johnson’s AdSense account. Folks have sued for less. For now, Johnson is just blogging and tweeting about his AdSense account, like so:“[email protected] holding a Youtuber’s[sic] Adsense[sic] account hostage after you promised to sign it back over is bad for your business.” Maker Studios has yet to respond to requests for comment, but Maker Studios CEO Danny Zappin did bother to send Johnson insulting text messages late last night, one that read, “You’re [sic] lack of integrity and character are sad. [Fornicate] you. Prepare for war … bitch.”Photo courtesy of a Ray William Johnson clip on YouTube 4 Keys to a Kid-Safe App 9 Books That Make Perfect Gifts for Industry Ex…last_img read more

Kat, Ranbir walk ramp for Rohit Bal

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2017 M’sia Cup QF match-ups confirmed

first_imgMalaysia Cup Pahang and Melaka take up the last 2 spots in M’sia Cup quarters Ooi Kin Fai Last updated 2 years ago 06:00 10/9/2017 FacebookTwitterRedditcopy Comments(0) Yamil Romero, Pahang, T-Team, Malaysia Cup Pahang FA Malaysia Cup Johor Darul Ta’zim Kedah v Kelantan Negeri Sembilan v PKNP Kuala Lumpur v PKNS Johor Darul Ta’zim v Selangor Terengganu v Sarawak Pahang v Terengganu II UiTM v Melaka United Perak v FELDA United FELDA United PKNS Negeri Sembilan Kuala Lumpur Selangor Sarawak Terengganu II UiTM Melaka United Pahang Perak Terengganu Kelantan Kedah PKNP The quarterfinal match-ups of the 2017 Malaysia Cup have been confirmed after Pahang and Melaka sealed place in the knockout phase. Pahang and Melaka United became the final two teams to qualify to the knockout stage of the 2017 Malaysia Cup as the group stage came to a close on Saturday night. They join PKNP FC, Perak, Felda United, Johor Darul Ta’zim (JDT), Selangor and Kedah who have all confirmed their quarter final ticket before the last round of matches.The quarterfinal matches have also been decided with Pahang playing Perak, Felda hosting PKNP, Selangor going up against Kedah and Melaka facing up against JDT. The first leg matches are scheduled to take place over two day, 15 – 16 September. Editors’ Picks ‘I’m getting better’ – Can Man Utd flop Fred save his Old Trafford career? Why Barcelona god Messi will never be worshipped in the same way in Argentina Lyon treble & England heartbreak: The full story behind Lucy Bronze’s dramatic 2019 Liverpool v Man City is now the league’s biggest rivalry and the bitterness is growing In Group A, Pahang clinched the second spot in the group after defeating T-Team 3-2 at Darul Makmur Stadium. The Titans gave the Elephants a run for their money, equalising twice in the match through Syed Sobri and Youssouf Maiga after Matheus Alves and Nor Azam Azih had given their team the lead. It was left to Yamil Romero to seal the win with five minutes left to play, a result which was a double blow for T-Team as it knocks them out of the competition. Negeri Sembilan and PKNP played out a goal-less draw in the other match.Perak, Felda United, Malaysia Cup(C) Perak TBGOver in Group B, with the top two spots already confirmed, it was a battle between Perak and Felda to see who finishes top of the group. Mehmet Durakovic put out a mixture of first teamers and fringe players but was still able to guide Perak to a 2-1 win. Nizad Ayub opened the scoring in the first half but the visitors struck back through Danial Amier. Shahrul Saad emerged as the hero as his late goal proved to be the winner. Guilherme de Paula scored twice for Kuala Lumpur as they beat PKNS FC 2-0 in the group’s other match.Things were a little less straightforward in Group C. Before the start of the day, Melaka needed only a point to confirm their place in the last eight and were given a big scare by UiTM FC. In a ding-dong battle, the plucky UiTM side handed Melaka an embarrassing 5-3 defeat. Akanni Sunday’s late penalty conversion ultimately became the deciding factor and killed the last breath of fight in Melaka. However, Melaka were able to count their lucky stars as Kedah took the match against Kelantan seriously to triumphed 2-0 at Darul Aman Stadium. Ken Ilso continuing his fine form with another goal to add to an earlier strike from Sandro da Silva as The Red Eagles won the group with consummate ease. Mohammed Ghaddar, Johor Darul Ta'zim, Selangor, Malaysia Cup(C) Johor Southern TigersLike Group B, Group D was also another battle to determine the winners of the group and it was JDT who was victorious in that battle with a 3-1 win. Mohammed Ghaddar benefited from Gonzalo Cabrera’s delivery from the left to open the scoring but Selangor equalised through Rufino Segovia. Gary Steven Robbat capped a rare start with a headed goal before half time to restore JDT’s lead and Ghaddar added to Selangor’s wounds in the second half, reacting quickest to Natxo Insa’s shot that bounced off the post. Terengganu and Sarawak played out a 3-3 draw in the group’s remaining match.last_img read more

Lebron James Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade Share Final

This is Miami’s first Game 7 in the LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh era.The Heat’s three stars addressed reporters for the final time on Saturday before Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, with Chris Bosh saying he again expects to come off the bench, Dwyane Wade explaining the reason for his offensive struggles, and LeBron James asserting it’s absurd for anyone to suggest he could produce Thursday’s eye-popping numbers every game.Through six games, Wade had just 35 first-half points in this series on 12 for 46 shooting (26 percent). But he has 92 points in the second half.Wade said because he’s facing so many double teams, the Celtics are “taking me out of the game. So I’m trying to make as much of an impact as possible. I understand I have to affect the game other ways and wait for my opportunities to come.“It’s not the easiest thing to do. A double team doesn’t let you get good looks, and when you get looks, it gets you out of your rhythm. But I’ve got to stick with it, and that’s what I’ve done.“I’ve had better second halves than first halves, and if I can pick one, I’ll pick the second half, instead of playing great in the first half and not good in the second one. They put a game plan together, and there’s no question the game plan is to make sure I don’t see a lot of opportunities.”James said Saturday that “I would love to have another game like” Thursday’s 45-point, 15-rebound epic, but “no one can do that every single game. People say, ‘Why can’t I do that every game?’ That’s the craziest thing.”Mario Chalmers referred to James’ serious, piercing glare during Game 6 as “his ugly look.” James, informed of that, was amused. “I never had that look,” James said. “I never had that look in my life. It’s a focused look.”As for Bosh, he said he has no issue with coming off the bench for the third consecutive game since returning from an abdominal strain. “It’s irrelevant,” he said. “It will be irrelevant as long as we’re playing. As long as I get to play, it doesn’t matter. We have a good thing going right now. I will continue to come off the bench as long as it’s good. I’m going to have my time with certain lineups.”Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he would not announce his starting lineup until just before tipoff.Source: Miamiherald.com read more

Forget Repeating As Champs The Broncos Might Not Make The Playoffs

42004AFC East41590 Passing offense-1.1+2.22720 92008NFC East41581 Rushing defense+2.5-0.5527 Rushing offense-1.6-1.82023 61976AFC Central41583 Passing defense+4.8+5.711 EXPECTED PTS ADDED/GAMERANK Offense-2.6+0.72518 How the 2015 and 2016 Broncos compare 71975AFC Central41581 Based on average Elo rating of the division’s teams.Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com And the rest of the AFC West has improved — by leaps and bounds, in some cases. After Week 12 of the 2015 season, the Broncos’ division rivals — the Chiefs, Raiders and San Diego Chargers — had an average Elo rating of 1489, well below the NFL-wide average of 1505. K.C.’s Elo rating ranked seventh in the league, and the Chiefs were five victories into what would eventually be an 11-game winning streak. But the Raiders and Chargers were each in the league’s bottom third, and the AFC West was fourth among the NFL’s eight divisions in overall average Elo.This year’s AFC West, by contrast, easily ranks first in all of football in average Elo. The Chiefs’ Elo rating has improved by 32 points from where it was this time last season, the Chargers’ by 68 points and the Raiders’ by a stunning 139 points — that makes Oakland the league’s second-most-improved team over that span (trailing only the Dallas Cowboys). With an average Elo of 1578, the 2016 AFC West is on pace to be the NFL’s 10th-best division since the league merged with the AFL before the 1970 season. 12013NFC West41624 CATEGORY2015201620152016 2015 numbers are for the full season; 2016 numbers are as of Nov. 27.Offensive and defensive EPA won’t necessarily match the sum of rushing and passing EPA on each side of the ball because penalties are tracked in a separate category.Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group 22007AFC South41608 All of this has conspired to make the Broncos’ bid for a championship repeat far more daunting than it seemed before the season began. Only 12 teams with an Elo rating as high as Denver’s current mark have missed the playoffs since the merger,2Most recently, the 2008 New England Patriots. but right now, it’s basically a tossup as to whether the Broncos will become No. 13. And because the Broncos’ playoff odds would have been much higher if they’d won or tied Sunday night, their playoff fate might end up depending on — of all things — the few inches that determined where Santos’s kick went after glancing off the goalpost in overtime.Check out our latest NFL predictions. Share on Facebook For most of the season, the Denver Broncos’ bid to repeat as Super Bowl champs looked like it would be relatively smooth sailing. The Broncos opened the season as the best team in the NFL according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings, and before this weekend, our playoff predictions (which are based on Elo) never gave the team less than a 74 percent chance of making it to the postseason. Going into Sunday night’s game against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs, Denver had a healthy 76 percent chance of punching a return ticket to the playoffs.But after losing to K.C. when Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos banked in a game winner off the left upright as time expired, Denver unexpectedly finds itself in a precarious situation. The Broncos are in third place in the AFC West, a game behind the Chiefs and two behind the Oakland Raiders, and our model gives Denver only a 54 percent chance of returning to the playoffs. All of a sudden, the Broncos’ title defense is in doubt.How did Denver get into this predicament? For one thing, the team’s quality of play has slipped ever so slightly compared with last season. At this stage of the 2015 season, Denver ranked fourth in the NFL with a 1661 Elo rating, and our model assigned them a 10 percent probability of winning the Super Bowl. This year, despite competing with fewer great teams, the Broncos rank fifth with a 1606 Elo and a 4 percent Super Bowl probability. If they instead sported that 1661 rating from last season, this year’s Broncos would be second in the NFL, nipping at the New England Patriots’ heels for the right to be No. 1.For a while this season, the Broncos’ defense looked like it might be able to keep steady with the all-time great D the team assembled last season, and Denver still has the best defense in football according to expected points added. But like most of history’s dominant defenses, the Broncos’ D has experienced some reversion to the mean, and the team is now getting 4.8 EPA per game out of its defense rather than the 6.6 they got last season. As expected, Denver’s offense has improved under first-year starting QB Trevor Siemian (it would have been hard not to, given how poorly Peyton Manning played last season), but it hasn’t been enough to offset that defensive regression and a drop-off on special-teams after adjusting for strength of schedule.1If you add up Denver’s EPA on offense, defense and special teams, you’ll find that the Broncos have a better per-game point differential this seaon than they did in 2015. (By definition, EPA is designed to add up to a team’s points-per-game differential.) But the Broncos have also played an easier schedule this season; according to Pro-Football-Reference.com’s simple rating system, the 2016 Broncos (+5.4 SRS) are running slightly behind their 2015 form (+5.8) after adjusting for strength of schedule. As a result, the Broncos are no better off now than they were last year. The NFL’s strongest divisions, 1970-2016 Special teams-0.3-1.42526 102016AFC West41578 YEARDIVISIONTEAMSAVG. ELO 52014NFC West41588 81970NFC Central41581 31984AFC West51600 Defense+6.6+4.811 read more

Drew Brees Deserves Credit For The Saints Running Game Too

Washington3.627.92614 After more than a decade of tearing teams to shreds through the air, the New Orleans Saints made a stunning change this season to their offense: They grounded their arsenal. The 2017 Saints are the most dominant rushing team in football, comfortably leading the league in yards gained by running backs. So the obvious solution for the Carolina Panthers in Sunday’s wild-card game is to stack the box with too many defenders for the Saints offensive line to block.But this won’t happen. And here’s what makes the New Orleans offense something that previously existed only in a defensive coordinator’s night terror: Drew Brees is still one of the NFL’s most effective passers, even when he’s leading the game’s best rushing attack. To put it another way, the Saints are winning because of their running game, and the Saints running game is winning because of Brees.Despite racking up more than 2,000 rushing yards by mostly Mark Ingram (1,124) and Alvin Kamara (728), the running backs and the team’s offensive line rarely had to account for eight or more defenders near the line of scrimmage. Saints’ opponents have been unwilling to commit to stopping the run — which is what you generally do against great running teams. To measure this fairly across the league, we first need to get rid of all the obvious pass or run scenarios based on down and distance or game situation.1We threw out any play where there were more than two wide receivers in the formation or an offense was down two or more scores because this suggests to a defense that a pass is coming. We also dumped all short-yardage plays (1 yard from a first down) and goal-line situations (3 or fewer yards from the end zone). Lastly, we ignored the final six minutes of the game because an offense’s intentions here are frequently obvious — whether it’s to play catch-up (pass) or to kill clock (run). Looking at what’s left, the Saints faced stacked fronts of eight or more defenders on just 37 of their 172 rushing plays, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group — a rate of 21.5 percent that’s 25th in the league. The average for all NFL teams is 28 percent. Miami4.128.01513 NY Giants4.033.9168 Houston3.824.82419 Minnesota4.028.31912 Cleveland4.123.21022 The Saints weren’t the only team that seemed to be preventing defenses from loading the box, but they had by far the most running success. Like the Saints, the Chiefs and Falcons ranked in the top five in yards per pass, which was enough to keep defenses from committing to stopping the run. While the Rams appear to fit this profile too, they played so many three-plus WR sets that teams simply could not commit that many defenders to the line of scrimmage.Playing against conventional fronts even when employing run-friendly personnel (no more than two WRs) is the key to the Saints’ success in generating yards before contact. Their running backs led the NFL in 2.85 yards on average before encountering a defender. Yes, a lot of this is good vision by the backs and effective offensive line blocking. But the fact that there weren’t often too many defenders at the line of scrimmage was Kamara and Ingram’s secret weapon.On paper, Brees’s role in the offense seems more minimized than ever: 23 touchdown passes after nine straight years of 30 or more, just 536 pass attempts after averaging 656 the prior seven seasons, and a Saints career low of 4,334 yards. But this isn’t 2015 Peyton Manning clearly wheezing to the finish line and needing the team to dominate in other areas in order to win. Brees, 38, led the NFL this year in yards per pass attempt, and his 103.9 passer rating was his best since 2013.Look no further than the Saints’ opponent on Sunday for an example of a team that has to deal with stacked fronts because defenses don’t fear the passing game. Carolina running backs had to face at least eight defenders in the box on 42 percent of the rushing plays in our sample, the second-highest rate in the league. And why not? Cam Newton ranks 21st in passing yards per attempt and 24th in passer rating, and he’s more a threat when he’s running himself.But even Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers (37.2 percent) and Tom Brady’s Patriots (27.7 percent) were forced to send running backs into defenses with extra run-stoppers at the line of scrimmage far more often than the Saints. Maybe defenses have been slow to adjust to the Saints’ new offensive model, but Brees’s presence helping the running game find room is no recent phenomenon. Since 2010, the Saints’ average of 4.5 yards per rush by their running backs is the third-best rate in football.The even worse news for Carolina on Sunday is that perhaps no team has been more flustered by the multidimensional Saints than these Panthers. In their two prior meetings, both Saints wins, Carolina allowed 149 and 148 rushing yards. Those are the two worst performances by the Panthers’ run defense all year. And it’s not like they’re stopping Brees either: The future Hall of Famer posted a 117.8 passer rating with four TD passes in those two contests. The Panthers seem to have been caught in between the new Saints and the old-model Saints — and able to stop neither.Check out our latest NFL predictions. Pittsburgh4.037.2174 LA Chargers3.924.12221 Denver4.021.21826 Philadelphia4.534.547 Seattle3.318.23230 Chicago4.119.51429 Arizona3.444.0301 Oakland4.137.5113 Detroit3.318.03131 San Francisco4.127.31316 Dallas4.336.665 NY Jets4.030.52010 Cincinnati3.719.62528 Excludes plays that are obvious passing or rushing situations: when a team is down by at least two scores, is in a short-yardage situation, is at the goal line or is showing three or more WRs; or when the game is in the final six minutes.Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group Kansas City4.722.9223 Buffalo4.028.92111 Green Bay4.124.61220 Indianapolis3.620.02727 LA Rams4.522.6324 New Orleans5.121.5%125 Carolina3.642.0282 RANK Teams don’t crowd the line to stop New OrleansNFL teams by rushing yards from running backs in 2017, with how often each offense faced at least eight defenders in the box Baltimore4.227.0817 Tennessee3.931.0239 Atlanta4.217.3732 Tampa Bay3.525.22918 Jacksonville4.236.296 New England4.427.7515 TeamYards/Rush8+ Box RateYards/Rush8+ Box read more

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